Experiences that say that one thing hasn’t occurred are at all times attention-grabbing to me, as a result of as we all know, there are “identified knowns”; there are issues we all know we all know. We additionally know there are “identified unknowns”; that’s to say we all know there are some issues we have no idea. However there are additionally “unknown unknowns” — those we don’t know we don’t know.
— Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Protection,
Protection Division Briefing on February 12, 2002
I’ve drawn a diagram of this constellation beneath. I like drawing diagrams as a result of they usually level out issues we miss. Issues we miss could cause all kinds of hassle. On this case what was lacking from Rumsfeld’s assertion (and pondering?) have been “unknown knowns”. These are that which we don’t know however which we may know, as a result of different folks know them. “Unknown knowns” are additionally referred to as ignorance and are sometimes a consequence of certitude or religion.
Your entire quad seems like this
The vertical axis offers along with your data (or your group’s data) vs different folks’s data. This axis needs to be straightforward to get a deal with on besides in these instances when somebody thinks he is aware of kind of than he truly does which might trigger some confusion as to the place the true zero lies. On the prime, we now have the issues that you understand. On the backside, we now have the issues that you simply have no idea however different folks (would possibly) know. The horizontal offers with the world or actuality. Some issues are identified about actuality resembling the present climate, the previous historical past of inventory costs, the legislation of gravity, and so on. Some issues about actuality are unknown resembling future rates of interest, future authorities insurance policies, future know-how, and so on.Everyone has a private diagram. As an illustration, your data could also be my ignorance; what could be a shock to me could also be a prediction to you as a consequence of your better grasp of both private data or data about actuality. The better your private data is, the much less ignorant you’ll be however extra importantly, the extra predictions it is possible for you to to make and the less surprises you’ll expertise.
One significantly profound supply of non-public ignorance and surprises is specialization. Specialization drives an individual into the higher proper nook the place he is aware of all the things there’s to learn about nothing. Folks could also be shocked to study this however regardless of usually being requested their opinion on present occasions actors typically don’t know a lot about politics whereasthey do know rather a lot about appearing 
. The identical goes for different vocations. A extra critical instance may be that of the scholar. Students or researchers are vocationally rewarded for his or her productiveness as measured by the variety of publications in prestigious journals. Whereas there’s numerous deal with work-life stability and entertaining various hobbies, those that focus 100% of their power on their specialization finally will get the promotion. This has result in lots of ultra-focused intellectuals every driving a specialised understanding of a slim fraction of the world however few tying all of it collectively.The result’s specialists which have a tough time speaking to the broader public and even to one another. There are not any singly organizing people which are able to studying all the things there’s to know anymore. As an illustration, there was philosophers. Philosophers would take into consideration the world. Philosophers then cut up into pure philosophers and “different”. The pure philosophers later grew to become mathematicians, physicists, chemists, astronomers, geologists, biologists, … and never so lengthy after that these cut up up as properly. Thus at this time it is rather onerous to position data into context.
Subsequently placing issues in context is just not finished by people. Somewhat it’s finished by procedures or delegation by a system. Now the issue is that specialization has triggered an perspective the place it’s implicitly assumed that there’s at all times a “they” that may resolve any drawback. International warming? “They” will consider one thing! Flu epidemics? “They” will consider one thing! Operating out of oil? “They” will consider one thing!
The issue is that there isn’t any “they” answerable for the world. “They” could possibly repair remoted issues like a gasoline chromatographic evaluation of ear wax, however “they” should not in a position to repair systemic drawback. Techniques have inertia. A lot of inertia. Did you ever surprise why English as taught in faculties focuses the analyses of texts usually perpetrated by loopy folks, you understand, writers, moderately grammar or writing copy or journalistic articles or just letters? College students are primarily imitating English professors, who’re imitating medieval monasteries, who’re imitating historic Greek philosophers (learn extra right here). Structure is one other instance. Why do massive establishments have Doric columns imitating stone facades of Greek temples which once more imitate wooden pillars of less complicated huts? Why do universities nonetheless have seminars courting from a time when communication was so sluggish and costly that college students couldn’t afford their very own textbooks? It’s systemic inertia and the explanation for the systemic inertia is that there isn’t any “they” answerable for operations.
This turns into a giant drawback in relation to future planning. As an illustration, monetary planning is generally based mostly on historic returns although everybody warns us that previous outcomes are not any assure of future returns. The query we should ask ourself is just not what the identified unknowns are e.g. whether or not future returns of the inventory market indices are 4%, 8% or 12%, however moderately what are the unknown unknowns? Will democracy nonetheless exist in 30 years? Will the greenback be price something? Will barter moderately than financial trade be the main target? Will everyone be entrepreneurs moderately than staff? Will world conflict III happen? Will folks be anticipated to develop their very own meals or will meals be offered within the type of soylent inexperienced by pipeline? Few retirement plans within the type of 401(okay)s, IRAs, SEPs, and so on. make provisions for this, as a result of monetary planners are, sadly, consultants in monetary planning.
There are two methods to pursue right here. The comfy one is to comply with the gang and do what everyone else does. That is secure within the psychic sense. Word as an illustration, that since very many individuals have been silly and speculated in everlasting progress of actual property costs they did get a bailout. People don’t fare this properly as a result of democracy cares much less about people. Nonetheless, people are nimbler and extra agile than crowds, so this makes for an alternate technique which is the one I favor. However this technique is just not all about accumulating 1,000,000 {dollars}. Additionally it is in regards to the scenario the place cash doesn’t purchase you something.
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Initially posted 2008-03-17 07:12:24.